The week after the inflation data reports was expected to be relatively quiet, with the most significant event being a meeting with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He remained tight-lipped about when rate cuts would happen, but given his demeanor, he did not deny that rate cuts were on the way — simply that he would not indicate when they would arrive. This has only confirmed to lending partners and the broader market that they were right to feel optimistic that rate cuts are possible before the end of the year.

There were a few cyclical reports released, with the Economic Indicators report taking the lead and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book being among the highlights.

With lofty expectations, the CPI delivered a lower-than-expected inflation increase, leading to a positive uptake across many lending partners and markets. However, the PPI was on the opposite end of that, with a higher-than-expected inflation rate increase, muting the positive response from the CPI data release.

With lofty expectations, the CPI delivered a lower-than-expected inflation increase, leading to a positive uptake across many lending partners and markets. However, the PPI was on the opposite end of that, with a higher-than-expected inflation rate increase, muting the positive response from the CPI data release.

With the FOMC Minutes coming precisely within expectations, there is once again a lot of optimism that the Federal Reserve may cut rates this year. Much of the Q2 data reports show favorable amounts of reduction in inflation as well as a more stable economic outlook for the rest of the year. With the larger reports in PMI Manufacturing numbers and Non-farm Payroll figures, the overall outlook seems to align with the rest of the data points, justifying the more recent optimism about potential rate cuts. This week should give the final results on Q2 inflation results with the new releases of CPI and PPI data reports.

Following the release of key data such as the FOMC rate decision and CPI and PPI inflation reports, only the PCE Index reports remained to set the course, which are coming in well within expectations. The Consumer Confidence Report is also a significant concern since it influences broader economic decisions when consumers hesitate to spend, usually due to rising living costs.

Currently, the Retail Sales Report is the sole report that has weight. With the passage of more optimistic inflation data reports, retail sales coming in slightly under expectations will have little to no bearing on the overall outlook. Given the last major reports indicating the economy’s health and state of inflation, there is more optimism toward a potential rate cut this year. Lending partners have still been quick to continue cutting rates.