With the CPI and PPI scheduled for release in the upcoming week, the previous week was lightly peppered with a small amount of impactful financial data releases. The highlight was the S&P Manufacturing PMI, which reported final numbers for the year showing better-than-expected improvements in the manufacturing sector. Unemployment data also aligned with expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut remaining on track. Lastly, the Consumer Credit Report had the expected jump just before the Holiday Season as consumers relied on credit to make holiday purchases for the end of the year.

Leading off with the FOMC Minutes, the Federal Reserve has stated once again they will maintain a “gradual” approach to cutting interest rates, which has aligned with their goals of meeting their target 2% inflation goal. The PCE Index release numbers, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, have shown everything is within expectations. So while the rate cuts may be a gradual process, there is much optimism that they are coming. Following those reports were the Personal Income Spending, GDP Estimates, and Consumer Confidence pending the holidays. Both the Persona Income and Spending have shown very strong results ahead of the holidays with the income beating expectations. This is met by extremely strong confidence coming from consumers as we see a 16-month high. This is finally corroborated by the GDP revisions which have shown the economy has shown steady growth for the entirety of the year.

Following the election results, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report painted a less-than-stellar picture, reflecting stagnation in sentiment. The prior week was relatively light, aside from the Consumer Sentiment data. However, the S&P PMI Industrial Numbers provided a brighter outlook, indicating some acceleration in manufacturing activity as the holiday season approaches. Looking ahead, the coming week is expected to deliver more significant data on inflation, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, the PCI Index.

With the release of the latest CPI and PPI data, inflation has increased month-to-month for the first time since March, marking the first rise in over seven months. The Federal Reserve has reiterated its goal of reducing inflation to a 2% target within a year. While this development doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent interest rate hike, it suggests that current rates may remain unchanged for an extended period. Earlier optimism about a potential rate cut by the end of the year has significantly diminished in light of recent inflation figures and economic data. However, Retail Sales data presents a more positive outlook, showing continued economic growth ahead of the holiday shopping season.

This week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data was released, and the results met expectations. This, along with recent GDP estimates, employment reports, and personal income/spending figures, paints a stable economic picture. It suggests that we may be on track for the Federal Reserve’s next round of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has consistently stated its 2% inflation target and current figures show inflation at 2.1%. This indicates that a ‘soft landing’ for the economy could be within reach.